Wisconsin really is “Open for Business,” so where are all the jobs?

Give Scott Walker credit. He made his campaign slogan “Wisconsin is Open for Business” a reality. In an administration rife with incompetence, corruption, and political patronage, he got this right. According to data compiled by The New York Times from state and federal agencies, Wisconsin is now one of the top corporate welfare states in the nation, second in the Upper Midwest only to automobile bailout-heavy Michigan.

In spite of all these “job creating” incentives and programs, Forbes Magazine recently dropped Wisconsin from 40th to 42nd in the nation in their annual business rankings, making Wisconsin one of the worst states for business in the nation. Just what is going on? By the numbers, Wisconsin should be swimming in jobs. Based on the conservative theory that tax breaks for the job creators will…well…create jobs…

Let’s let the numbers tell the full story.

In total corporate incentives, Wisconsin ranks 14th overall in the nation. At least $1.53 billion went to corporate subsidies in the past year (the state cut $1 billion in public education funding in the 2011 – 2013 budget). These subsidies cost the average taxpayer $268 per year. Remember that number the next time you complain about a $30 per year property tax hike to fund public education. A full 10% of the state budget went to pay these corporate subsidies.

Of the 903 reported corporate grants listed in the Times report, 300 (nearly one-third) have come in 2011-2012 alone, during the Walker administration, primarily through the WEDC “Enterprise Zone Jobs Tax Credit.” In fact, seven of the top ten grant awards totaling over $270 million are 2011 or 2012 grants:

Corporate subsidies

Where has the $1.53 billion in “job creating” investment gone? Could this be the end of the myth surrounding corporate subsidies and incentives spurring job growth? Wisconsin under Scott Walker could be an example of an epic failure of this economic policy theory. Over the past two years, Wisconsin has been far behind the nation in employment recovery, and early 2013 is not looking any better.

Wisconsin employers will slow the pace of hiring in the first three months of 2013 even as the nationwide outlook for job creation is at the most promising levels since the recovery began nearly three years ago, a new survey says.

In Wisconsin, “employers are slightly less optimistic about their staffing plans,” said Manpower spokeswoman Mary Ann Lasky. Nationally, however, “optimism among U.S. hiring decision makers continues to improve,” according to the Milwaukee-based global staffing services company. (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel 12/10/12)

The December 1, 2012 unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed Wisconsin with the most first time unemployment claims in the nation for the week ending December 1.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 24 were in Wisconsin (+5,876), Oregon (+2,328), Ohio (+2,252), Washington (+2,107), and Iowa (+1,262), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-23,966), California (-7,053), New York (-6,682), Texas (-6,425) and North Carolina (-2,609).

On December 12, 2012 Scott Walker appeared at a Waukesha County Business Alliance lunch and claimed to be “just under 100,000″  jobs created since he took office. It did not take long for Politifact to rate Walker’s claim “Pants on Fire.”

However, several within his own administration, including his primary spokesman, have said that is the wrong way to measure jobs — you can’t combine partial and full year data sets. As one aide said: It would be “misrepresenting the truth.”

By his administration’s own yardstick, his statement is false. We think it’s ridiculous to — after private admonitions — publicly present it this way. Pants on Fire.

Walker’s continued denial  of his policy failure is becoming sociopathic. In spite of his administration awarding literally billions of dollars to corporate subsidies, Wisconsin continues to lag behind in the recovery. The jobs crisis in Wisconsin is very real – and will not be cured with $10-$15/hour jobs, right-to-work legislation, or ideological social engineering.

Just how bad is it? Recent BLS data from measures the Walker Administration accepts (LAUS, QCEW) show that the money being given to corporations and “small business” to create jobs is not. The question remains…where is the money going?

First, the Quarterly Census (QCEW), Scott Walker’s favorite.


Since 2010, there is a very moderate upward trend. The actual data show a non-existent job recovery in Wisconsin.

QCEW table


According to the latest verified QCEW data, Wisconsin has gained about 40,000 jobs January 2011-March 2012. The yellow highlights indicate the peak pre-recession employment in 2008 – 2,840,648. It is imperative to understand that Wisconsin still has a 200,000 job deficit just to get back to pre-recession employment levels, without accounting for population growth.

But this is December. The QCEW data is slow to be verified and released. The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) gives a more current measure based on unemployment data – which the Walker Administration has accepted as an accurate measure. The LAUS paints a similar picture:

LAUS graph

Again, the actual LAUS data shows a jobless recovery:

LAUS table 1


The yellow again highlights peak employment, pre-recession. The green highlights the last QCEW data entry in March 2012. According to the LAUS data, from January 2011 – October 2012, less than 20,000 jobs were created since Walker took office. The same data shows a jobs deficit of only about 100,000 to get to pre-recession levels.

While the baseline for each measure is different, the result is the same. Since taking office, Scott Walker has only created 20% of the jobs needed to just get back to pre-recession levels, not accounting for population growth.

The untold story of Walker’s tremendous job failure in relation to corporate welfare is the anemic labor force. Since Scott Walker took office, the total labor force has been virtually stagnant:

labor force graph


Once again, the actual data show an anemic labor force – not what a recovery looks like with over $1 billion a year in corporate subsidies being granted.

LAUS table 2


Note the high point of the labor force shortly after the recession took hold, in yellow – nearly 3.14 million people. When Scott Walker took office in January 2011, the number had dropped to nearly 3.07 million. As of October 2012, there are only 3.06 million people in the labor force. While the adult population has grown since April 2009, the labor force has dropped by over 70,000.

An 80% deficit in job growth, coupled with a decline of 70,000 people in the labor force. Is this the employment climate over $1.5 billion per year in corporate subsidies gets us?

The people of Wisconsin would be better served investing that $1.5 billion back into public schools. Because the question still remains, what has Wisconsin received for that $1.5 billion “investment?”


About the latest employment numbers, Governor Walker…how’s austerity working?

Scott Walker was quick to take credit for continued modest gains in employment after the latest quarterly numbers were released (QCEW) on Thursday. From Walker’s weekly radio address:

The fiscal reforms we put in place coupled with reforms like reducing frivolous lawsuits and bringing certainty and accountability to state regulations, have established a strong foundation for job growth.

Walker has also been quick to blame Barack Obama and the national economy for Wisconsin’s lag in job growth:

“While Wisconsin still faces the challenges of a stagnant national economy, Governor Walker’s upcoming budget will focus on creating jobs, and growing the state’s economy.”

Wisconsin continues to lag far behind most of the nation in job growth, a pathetic 38th overall. Growth was virtually non-existent at 1.22%, 45th in rate of growth (image courtesy Milwaukee Journal Sentinel):

The US and most Midwestern states saw growth around 2% for the same time period. Walker is taking credit where no credit is due. In fact, his austerity measures targeting public employees have been a large reason Wisconsin is lagging in job growth. The austerity measures in place in Wisconsin have resulted in a real tax increase and burden on the middle class. Less income for a majority of Wisconsinites means less revenue, and slower growth.

The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is proof positive that any employment growth in Wisconsin is largely due to the direction of the overall national economy. And that the policies of Scott Walker are holding us back.

Given the long-term nature of employment growth or loss, let’s go back to 2002 for the 10-year trend.

Wisconsin 2002-2012 QCEW report (full spreadsheet linked)

March 2002 – 2,639,035

March 2007 – 2,728,963

March 2010 – 2,568,348

March 2012 – 2,638,987

Wisconsin is barely back to 2002 employment levels. That is not the case nationally. Scott Walker’s austerity measures have had a direct short-term impact (negative) on employment. The national numbers show that Walker is riding the coat tails of a modestly growing national labor economy:

US QCEW 2002-2012 (full spreadsheet linked):

March 2002 – 127,303,773

March 2007 – 134,280,105

March 2010 – 126,228,228

March 2012 – 130,175,438

Notice the trend there? The difference is that the national (and most other states’) economies are outpacing Wisconsin, significantly exceeding 2002 levels.

Three graphs, displayed on the linked Employment PDF Graphs here, demonstrate the commonality in the overall employment trend – with Wisconsin lagging in growth from 2010-2012, as the above data indicates. Walker’s continual politicization of the employment data has made matters worse, pursuing ideological agenda over real bi-partisan economic policies.

Austerity is a job killer. Period. Forget “regulation” or “uncertainty”, all of which are corporate conservative propaganda. The real damper on job creation can be found in the policy manuals of Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Mitt Romney.

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While Rome burns…Walker sells Wisconsin to the lowest bidder – China

Scott Walker is in Texas today with Governors Rick Perry (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Florida), courting Chinese investors in the hopes of attracting “investment” in their respective states.  Walker and the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation are attempting to attract millions of dollars in Chinese capital investment into Wisconsin, from the PiYi Investment Management Co. 

Meanwhile, back in Wisconsin, the monthly ritual of analyzing jobs data continues, with the same result. No matter how the far right attempts to spin the numbers, Wisconsin is still far behind the rest of the nation in job growth. The weekly unemployment claims report showed Wisconsin at the top of the list  of first-time unemployment filings.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 8 were in Louisiana (+6,678), Puerto Rico (+1,679), Mississippi (+1,067), Wisconsin (+988), and Washington (+833).

Right behind Louisiana, Puerto Rico, and Mississippi. Nearly 1,000 first time unemployed. Yes, it’s working – so much that Walker and WEDC will be happy to sell Wisconsin workers and resources to the Chinese, and their followers will be  lemmings diving in. Since Walker took office, job growth has come to a grinding halt.

Here’s a look at the numbers Walker actually accepts – the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).

Labor Force is at its lowest point in 6 months, and down 10,000 from August in 2010. The population in Wisconsin is growing at about 1% per year – we are not creating enough jobs to even keep up with population growth.

Statewide employment is stagnant since Walker took office in January 2011 (2.833 million 2011 – 2.832 million in August 2012). That increase is consistent with August 2010 – August 2012 – 10,000. With 10,000 fewer people in the workforce, the net is a zero gain.

The number of unemployed is down 8,000 since Walker took office (237,000 January 2011 – 229,000 August 2012), but is at its highest level in nearly a year – September 2011. Again – 10,000 fewer people in the work force.

The unemployment rate is at its highest level since September 2011 as well. Since the passage of the Walker budget in July 2011, any decrease in the rate is virtually gone – again, with 10,000 people less in the labor force.

Scott Walker has chosen ideology over governance. The opportunity has existed to create actual job legislation, and it was squandered. Acts 10 (collective bargaining) and 32 (budget) have done more to dampen the employment hiring climate in Wisconsin than any protest could ever have.

The Bain Capital of China, PiYi, will be enthusiastic to “invest” in Wisconsin. What will that mean?

Public Education defunding to support more state “partnering” with these venture capitalists – socialized risk, privatized profit. Simply stated, the selling out of Wisconsin’s workers, resources, and ideas to Chinese investors.

Rest assured, Scott Walker will make sure our kids have enough education to stack the boxes and work the cheap production jobs for their “venture capital” bosses. Take a hard look at Freeport, Illinois and Sensata for the future of manufacturing in the Midwest. This story has been much ignored in the media.

Welcome to the new economy in Fitzwalkerstan, and the United States.

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Current Job Drought is disastrous for economy, Wisconsin…and disproves Walker, GOP ideology

Wisconsin lost 11,700 private sector jobs in June. Including 1,500 jobs lost  in the Government Sector, the total is a dismal 13,200 – the most in 11 months. The unemployment rate is poised to rise from 6.8% to 7.0%:

The report clearly had an impact on the Walker Administration. Department of Workforce Development (DWD) Secretary Reggie Newson sent a letter to Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner John Galvin, blasting the agencies accounting methods – in essence, because they make the Walker Administration look bad:

“From the college graduate contemplating which state to launch a career to the business owner analyzing whether to expand at home or elsewhere, people across our state and nation are making major life decisions based on this information and, collectively, these decisions have an impact on our overall economy.”

Walker, his administration, and Conservative Republicans will never solve this unemployment or economic crisis. They will instead continue to distract; casting doubt about the survey methods previously heralded by Walker, when those numbers makes him look good. The facts, however, are this – Walker and conservatives nationwide are staking their economic policy about job creation on a lie. The result will be a deepening economic, and worse, unemployment crisis.

The economic myth that says “lower taxes on the job creators” will result in job creation is at the forefront of GOP campaigns this year. US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has the claim on the “jobs” page of his website:

Fix the Tax Code to Help Job Creators:

  • Increase American competitiveness to spur investment and create more American jobs by streamlining the tax code and lowering the tax rate for businesses and individuals including small business owners to no more than 25%.

The right-wing answer to our chronic jobs problem is to cut the top rate to 25%. Here’s the problem – tax rates for the wealthy and “job creators” have been decreasing for decades. This writer (and other’s) question to conservatives…Where the h*ll are the jobs? There can be no more doubt that this economic philosophy is a failure.

In a recent blog, Paul Krugman summarizes the fundamental issue:

Tax rates for the super-elite, the top .01%, have fallen in half since Mitt Romney’s father ran for president; or to put it differently, after tax income for this group has doubled due to policy alone. And bear in mind that the US economy flourished just fine under those 60-70 tax rates

A table from a 2007 study published in the “Journal of Economic Perspectives” shows the “job creators” benefitting from decreased progressivism in the tax code:

Noteworthy is while the top tax rates have been cut nearly in half, the tax rate for the middle 60-90% (the functional middle class) has INCREASED by 25-33%. In Wisconsin, Scott Walker made tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations his first priority as Governor. With all this additional income in the hands of the “job creators,” where are the jobs? Wisconsin in particular has had a trend of lowering tax rates on top-tier earners. The top marginal personal income tax rate from 1979 – 1985 was 10%. In 2009, the rate was 7.75% (Legislative Fiscal Bureau). This represents a combined (state and federal) 42.25% tax cut for the top-tier earners since 1979.

The current unemployment situation reflects that additional income in the hands of top-tier wage earners has done nothing to spur job creation – in fact, in Wisconsin, there is virtually zero growth in jobs. Evidenced by the recent BLS data, there are 15,200 fewer people employed from May 2011-May 2012; and only 8,000 more than May 2010:

State employment 2010-2012

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 2716.9 2714.5 2718.0 2725.3 2728.0 2723.0 2727.2 2731.5 2729.4 2740.9 2743.0 2740.8
2011 2744.8 2750.2 2754.5 2753.4 2751.5 2742.5 2738.8 2729.0 2734.0 2731.2 2719.4 2719.8
2012 2725.0 2735.1 2737.9 2733.7 2736.3

 The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.8% in May, and as reported above, to preliminary 7.0% in June:

State unemployment rate 2010-2012

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8
2011 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.0
2012 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8

The Walker Administration has pointed to the decline in the RATE as being the benchmark that his policy is  “working”, but there is data which disputes their claim. The “Labor Force” data points to a bigger problem – chronic long-term unemployment. People dropped from the system due to benefits expiring; or those who do not qualify for benefits are not reported in the unemployment rate. The Labor Force data for Wisconsin shows this is a real and persistent problem. Since 2010, the number of people in the eligible workforce has remained basically flat. There have been modest gains and losses, but no expected trend upwards:

State Labor Force 2010-2012

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 3096168 3099651 3099906 3096209 3089619 3082208 3075845 3071277 3068599 3067648 3067750 3068342
2011 3069656 3070780 3070312 3067707 3063898 3060386 3058088 3057357 3057366 3057248 3056534 3056367
2012 3054610 3059442 3064447 3069130 3075391

Wisconsin averaged a .9% annual increase in workforce population over the past two years (US Census Data), roughly 1%. A drop in labor force of over 14,000, when population increases would predict an increase of 60,000 means one thing – more people are dropping out of the workforce, and are not reported in the unemployment rate. Any job growth is not keeping up with the increase in workforce, and it leads to one conclusion.

The arrogance and ideology of Scott Walker and the conservative Republicans are preventing them from admitting to economic policy failure. The reduction of taxes for the “job creators” has been occurring for decades. High taxes on “job creators” is not our problem. As previously stated by economists worldwide, the deficit is not our primary problem – weak consumer demand and unemployment are our problems. Put people back to work and increase demand for goods among the middle class, and the economy will recover; deficits will decrease, the economy will recover.

A note to Walker and his allies. You can’t run government like a business. Managing a “micro” economy like a corporation (no matter how large) is no comparison to running a complex, interconnected, “macro” economy of a state or national government. Many people have trouble grasping the difference in complexity between even the largest business and a national economy.

The U.S. economy employs 120 million people, about 200 times as many as General Motors, the largest employer in the United States. Yet even this 200-to-1 ratio vastly understates the difference in complexity between the largest business organization and the national economy. A mathematician will tell us that the number of potential interactions among a large group of people is proportional to the square of their number. Without getting too mystical, it is likely that the U.S. economy is in some sense not hundreds but tens of thousands of times more complex than the biggest corporation. (Harvard Business Review, January/February 1996)

Stop fighting about the numbers and govern…but we won’t hold our breath. We’ll be looking for your replacements.

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Wisconsin is still a leader…in job losses

This morning’s US Department of Labor press release tells a continuing tale of stagnant job growth and a long-term unemployment problem in Wisconsin.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 7 were in New York (+22,336), Michigan (+7,602), Ohio (+5,976), Pennsylvania (+4,775), and Wisconsin (+4,615), while the largest decreases were in California (-9,016), New Jersey (-5,282), Connecticut (-917), Massachusetts (-716), and Oklahoma (-671). 

Wisconsin (population 5.7 million) is number 4 in initial unemployment claims – behind New York (population 19.4 million), Michigan (population 9.8 million) , Ohio (population 11.5 million), and Pennsylvania (population 12.7 million) – all states with significantly larger populations.

The rise in claims erases the modest drop in claims last week of 663. This is further evidence of flat job growth, and a long-term unemployment problem. The added consequences of an extreme drought will make this economic situation worse.

The question is…Where is Scott Walker? While Walker is off playing political superstar, there is now the opportunity for a special session of the Legislature which could actually act in a bi-partisan session. We do not need a governor-in-absentia, we need leadership.  Again, as Wisconsinites are suffering through a depressed economy, Walker and his allies are playing politics…with people’s lives.


Scott Walker – prove you want to “work together”…

One of the first things out of Scott Walker’s victory speech on Tuesday night was a pledge to “work together to move Wisconsin forward.” Never mind the true meaning of the word “forward” is lost on Walker…

The Wisconsin State Senate is now controlled by the Democratic caucus, with the presumptive election of John Lehman to unseat Van Waangard in a Senatorial recall election in Racine. Dems will control the Senate by a 17-16 margin after the GAB certifies the election.

A challenge to Scott Walker. Badger Democracy has just received the aggregated jobs data(through open records request from DWD) from the 4th quarter of 2011 – the numbers Walker claims to “prove” his success in job growth; and which are highly disputed. The full report on those numbers will be published in the next 48 hours after they are reviewed and analyzed by enlisted experts. At first glance, it is apparent that the Walker Administration held back the release of information until AFTER the election for a reason. For Scott Walker to claim these numbers are a success is a new definition of “success.”

Meanwhile – the challenge. Scott Walker, if you are serious about your pledge to “work together” to put Wisconsinites back to work, call a Special Session NOW. After your gubernatorial brat and gloat fest, bring both parties together and actually work across the aisle to create real jobs. My understanding is the Democratic Senators have some very viable solutions.

This could be a first – for you to actually act in a manner consistent with what you say.

We’re all waiting.

The Unemployment Numbers Scott Walker doesn’t want made public while he plays politics

Scott Walker is playing a political game with the unemployment numbers. Releasing unverified survey results last week, over one month ahead of the official verified Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) numbers, Walker again walked the thin line of legality in his “official” announcement – closely followed by the release of a new campaign ad on  statewide television. Recent long-term unemployment numbers not released by the Walker Administration were obtained from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) by Badger Democracy. These verified figures show that under Scott Walker, Wisconsin has suffered persistent long-term unemployment-which Walker himself has ignored in lieu of playing political games with the numbers in the short recall election cycle.

Walker claims that in 2011, Wisconsin saw job growth of 23,300 in the private sector. This data was in direct conflict with verified data from the BLS showing a net loss of over 30,000 jobs during the same time period. In the April Jobs Report released by the DWD the day after Walker’s miraculous press release, the verified BLS data shows Wisconsin with a net loss of 6,200 private sector jobs from March-April 2012. Private Sector losses for the year April 2011-April 2012 were 11,100. Walker now claims the BLS numbers to be in dispute, insisting his reforms are working and Wisconsin is gaining jobs – pointing to the declining unemployment rate, which dropped to 6.7%.

In Wednesday’s April unemployment rate report from DWD, Secretary Reggie Newson reiterated the good news about the states declining rate of unemployment:

“Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates are lower in every county, all metro areas and all major cities except Brookfield, where the rate was unchanged,” DWD Secretary Reggie Newson said. “More people are working, and we expect more people to gain employment in the weeks and months ahead.”

“More people are working…” If the unemployment rate is dropping, that must be true – especially if the Walker Administration says it is so…or is it?

Besides the conflicting numbers from Walker, there is a glaring problem in the analysis. During the same year in which the unemployment rate dropped from7.5% to 6.7%, the “Labor Force” has remained virtually flat. In fact, from January 2011 – April 2012, the Labor Force has actually DECLINED – from 3,069,656 to 3,068,900 (-756). This is significant, as the Wisconsin population grew 6% from 2000-2010.  This would statistically result in a growing, not declining labor force. Wisconsin DWD statistics show the state has a chronic unemployment problem, as shown by information obtained by Badger Democracy.

Badger Democracy submitted requests to DWD for the numbers of workers who have dropped out of the unemployment system – due to discouragement or other reason, after having looked for work the previous year, and being currently available for work. The number of workers receiving unemployment benefits who have exhausted their benefits was also requested. The numbers are staggering – especially when taking into account the current unemployed number for April 2012 reported as 205,300.

The tables on civilians not in the labor force from DWD show this as being a chronic problem from the first quarter of 2011, with the relevant data in bold type:

Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 1st Quarter, 2011 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)

  Total Age Sex
16 to 24
25 to 54
55 years
and over
 Men  Women
Total not in the labor force…………………… 1,363.7 221.0 249.7 893.0 589.8 773.9
Do not want a job now……………………….. 1,254.7 185.2 211.1 858.4 537.7 717.0
Want a job…………………………………. 109.0 35.8 38.5 34.7 52.1 56.8
Did not search for work in previous year……. 60.1 19.4 18.9 21.8 26.0 34.1
Searched for work in previous year…………. 48.9 16.3 19.6 12.9 26.1 22.8
Not available to work now………………. 7.3 5.8 - 1.5 4.6 2.7
Available to work now………………….. 41.6 10.5 19.6 11.4 21.5 20.1
Reason not currently looking:                        
Discouragement over job prospects…… 17.7 5.0 7.3 5.4 11.8 5.9
Reasons other than discouragement…… 23.9 5.5 12.3 6.0 9.7 14.1
The above table shows 41,600 civilians “Available to work now” from over 1.36 million “not in the work force” for various reasons in the 1st quarter 2011. This includes 17,700 who report having searched for work in the previous year, but are “discouraged over job prospects” currently. Another 23,900 are not looking for other reasons. According to Professor Laura Dresser at the Center on Wisconsin Strategy, a labor economics expert at UW-Madison, the discouraged workers number is always low in reporting – primarily because of people’s hesitance to report being discouraged. The total number of “not currently looking” must be considered, as people will drop out of the workforce in a poor employment climate using “other reason” instead of admitting to discouragement – becoming a “stay-at-home” mom, adult student, or other.
The second quarter of 2011 shows an increase of over 6,000:
Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 2nd Quarter, 2011 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)

  Total Age Sex
16 to 24
25 to 54
55 years
and over
 Men  Women
Total not in the labor force…………………… 1,358.1 209.6 274.9 873.6 563.5 794.6
Do not want a job now……………………….. 1,248.1 172.4 235.4 840.3 511.4 736.7
Want a job…………………………………. 110.0 37.2 39.6 33.3 52.1 58.0
Did not search for work in previous year……. 47.1 12.6 16.4 18.2 16.5 30.7
Searched for work in previous year…………. 62.9 24.6 23.2 15.1 35.6 27.3
Not available to work now………………. 15.0 8.8 3.9 2.2 5.1 9.9
Available to work now………………….. 47.9 15.8 19.2 12.9 30.5 17.4
Reason not currently looking:                        
Discouragement over job prospects…… 14.2 3.2 6.0 5.0 8.6 5.5
Reasons other than discouragement…… 33.7 12.5 13.3 7.9 21.9 11.8

The total for 2nd Quarter 2011, above, 47,900 civilians available to work , who looked last year, but have given up.

Third Quarter 2011 showed a little improvement, down to 44,700:

Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 3rd Quarter, 2011 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)

  Total Age Sex
16 to 24
25 to 54
55 years
and over
 Men  Women
Total not in the labor force…………………… 1,370.1 175.1 290.5 904.5 607.2 763.0
Do not want a job now……………………….. 1,265.4 148.0 248.2 869.2 559.4 706.0
Want a job…………………………………. 104.7 27.1 42.3 35.3 47.7 57.0
Did not search for work in previous year……. 48.4 9.7 20.7 18.0 20.0 28.4
Searched for work in previous year…………. 56.3 17.4 21.6 17.3 27.7 28.7
Not available to work now………………. 11.7 2.8 3.5 5.4 3.4 8.3
Available to work now………………….. 44.7 14.6 18.1 12.0 24.3 20.4
Reason not currently looking:                        
Discouragement over job prospects…… 14.3 6.7 4.8 2.8 8.8 5.5
Reasons other than discouragement…… 30.3 7.9 13.3 9.1 15.5 14.8

Fourth Quarter 2011 shows marked improvement, dropping to 28,500 – the “discouraged workers” dropping to 6,800:

Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 4th Quarter, 2011 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)

  Total Age Sex
16 to 24
25 to 54
55 years
and over
 Men  Women
Total not in the labor force…………………… 1,410.4 228.5 281.5 900.4 608.3 802.1
Do not want a job now……………………….. 1,332.9 202.5 257.5 873.0 566.7 766.2
Want a job…………………………………. 77.5 26.0 24.0 27.4 41.6 35.9
Did not search for work in previous year……. 44.0 13.3 9.8 21.0 24.9 19.2
Searched for work in previous year…………. 33.5 12.8 14.2 6.4 16.7 16.7
Not available to work now………………. 4.9 3.2 1.7 - 1.0 3.9
Available to work now………………….. 28.5 9.6 12.5 6.4 15.7 12.9
Reason not currently looking:                        
Discouragement over job prospects…… 6.8 2.7 3.1 1.0 5.3 1.5
Reasons other than discouragement…… 21.8 6.9 9.4 5.5 10.4 11.4
The significant drop in the fourth quarter is explained by Professor Dresser as due to temporary holiday hires – with the first quarter 2012 expected to see a steep increase as those holiday jobs come to an end. That pattern held true, as the number jumps to 35,200 – with the “discouraged number nearly doubling to 12,600:

Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 1st Quarter, 2012 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)

  Total Age Sex
16 to 24
25 to 54
55 years
and over
 Men  Women
Total not in the labor force…………………… 1,395.7 272.9 260.4 862.4 582.7 813.0
Do not want a job now……………………….. 1,312.3 245.1 230.6 836.6 538.2 774.1
Want a job…………………………………. 83.5 27.9 29.9 25.7 44.5 38.9
Did not search for work in previous year……. 41.1 12.5 15.6 12.9 25.4 15.7
Searched for work in previous year…………. 42.4 15.4 14.2 12.8 19.2 23.2
Not available to work now………………. 7.2 3.1 3.3 0.7 3.0 4.2
Available to work now………………….. 35.2 12.2 10.9 12.1 16.2 19.0
Reason not currently looking:                        
Discouragement over job prospects…… 12.6 4.0 2.9 5.6 5.0 7.6
Reasons other than discouragement…… 22.6 8.2 8.0 6.4 11.2 11.4
At the end of March 2012, there were over 35,000 civilians available for work - who had sought employment in the previous year, but gave up. These people do not collect benefits, nor are they reported as “unemployed” for reasons of calculating the unemployment rate.
How many workers have exhausted or been denied unemployment benefits for the same time period (Q1 2011 – Q1 2012)? The first response came in the form of an email from DWD spokesman John Dipko, and referred to those collecting extended benefits under the Economic Stimulus Act, which terminated in March, after Wisconsin’s unemployment rate fell below the 7% mark:
Wisconsin had 44,384 final Extended Benefits payments from January 2011 through March 2012. Exceptions include Extended Training and Trade Readjustment Allowance. While this is payment data (v. claimant data), the information provides a good indicator of the number unique claimants who have exhausted all benefits programs.”
Allow me to emphasize that number – 44,384 people were thrown off benefits in March. Again, that number is not reflected in the unemployment rate. The final email response from Dipko was to the question of regular benefits expired, or not qualified to collect benefits for the same period. The brief equation at the end is directly from the email:
“Scott: an additional 14,608 claimants during the time frame specified were identified as either regular claimants who did not qualify for emergeny unemployment compensation, or regular claimants who qualified for benefits in a different state. Except in very few cases, the claimants would have no benefits available in Wisconsin. Again, exceptions include Extended Training and Trade Readjustment Allowance. 
44,384 + 14,608 = 58,992″
Again, let me emphasize the total number by the end of March – 58,992 Wisconsinites living outside the system. Collecting zero benefits, and not being reported in the “unemployment rate.” But they are there. Nearly 2% of the total workforce…over 1% of the population. 29% above the current number of reported unemployed. If that number of individuals is added to the 205,300 unemployed, the rate would jump to 8.6%. If we include the 35,200 civilians who have given up looking for work, but had been looking the previous year, the total is 94,192 at the end of March, 2012. This would bring the unemployment rate to 9.8%.
While the presumptive rate above is speculative, there is one fact from this data that is striking. Wisconsin has a chronic and persistent long-term unemployment problem. At the end of March, 2012, as a state, we dropped over 50,000 people off benefits, and another 35,000 reported giving up looking for work. Professor Dresser characterized these numbers as “highly significant.” Dresser points out that to return to 2007 employment levels, Wisconsin needs 200,000 jobs now taking into account population growth. Even if we give Scott Walker the 23,000 jobs he says he created in 2011 – nearly double that number lost their emergency benefits in March.
In light of this long-term and persistent problem, Scott Walker’s supposed gains in the unemployment rate are meaningless. He is playing political games with the numbers to give the illusion of progress – when in reality, he has chosen political gain, ideological civil war, political patronage, and propaganda over addressing the real problem. There are real people who need real jobs, and they have been unemployed for a long time. The Walker Administration and 2011 GOP-led Legislature have done nothing to address this issue. This Administration has squandered the opportunity and trust placed in it by the people of Wisconsin – to work for the good of the majority of people in the state. How can there be any further doubt that a recall is not only justified, but necessary.