Scott Walker is playing a political game with the unemployment numbers. Releasing unverified survey results last week, over one month ahead of the official verified Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) numbers, Walker again walked the thin line of legality in his “official” announcement – closely followed by the release of a new campaign ad on statewide television. Recent long-term unemployment numbers not released by the Walker Administration were obtained from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) by Badger Democracy. These verified figures show that under Scott Walker, Wisconsin has suffered persistent long-term unemployment-which Walker himself has ignored in lieu of playing political games with the numbers in the short recall election cycle.
Walker claims that in 2011, Wisconsin saw job growth of 23,300 in the private sector. This data was in direct conflict with verified data from the BLS showing a net loss of over 30,000 jobs during the same time period. In the April Jobs Report released by the DWD the day after Walker’s miraculous press release, the verified BLS data shows Wisconsin with a net loss of 6,200 private sector jobs from March-April 2012. Private Sector losses for the year April 2011-April 2012 were 11,100. Walker now claims the BLS numbers to be in dispute, insisting his reforms are working and Wisconsin is gaining jobs – pointing to the declining unemployment rate, which dropped to 6.7%.
In Wednesday’s April unemployment rate report from DWD, Secretary Reggie Newson reiterated the good news about the states declining rate of unemployment:
“Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates are lower in every county, all metro areas and all major cities except Brookfield, where the rate was unchanged,” DWD Secretary Reggie Newson said. “More people are working, and we expect more people to gain employment in the weeks and months ahead.”
“More people are working…” If the unemployment rate is dropping, that must be true – especially if the Walker Administration says it is so…or is it?
Besides the conflicting numbers from Walker, there is a glaring problem in the analysis. During the same year in which the unemployment rate dropped from7.5% to 6.7%, the “Labor Force” has remained virtually flat. In fact, from January 2011 – April 2012, the Labor Force has actually DECLINED – from 3,069,656 to 3,068,900 (-756). This is significant, as the Wisconsin population grew 6% from 2000-2010. This would statistically result in a growing, not declining labor force. Wisconsin DWD statistics show the state has a chronic unemployment problem, as shown by information obtained by Badger Democracy.
Badger Democracy submitted requests to DWD for the numbers of workers who have dropped out of the unemployment system – due to discouragement or other reason, after having looked for work the previous year, and being currently available for work. The number of workers receiving unemployment benefits who have exhausted their benefits was also requested. The numbers are staggering – especially when taking into account the current unemployed number for April 2012 reported as 205,300.
The tables on civilians not in the labor force from DWD show this as being a chronic problem from the first quarter of 2011, with the relevant data in bold type:
Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 1st Quarter, 2011 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)
| Total not in the labor force…………………… |
1,363.7 |
221.0 |
249.7 |
893.0 |
589.8 |
773.9 |
| Do not want a job now……………………….. |
1,254.7 |
185.2 |
211.1 |
858.4 |
537.7 |
717.0 |
| Want a job…………………………………. |
109.0 |
35.8 |
38.5 |
34.7 |
52.1 |
56.8 |
| Did not search for work in previous year……. |
60.1 |
19.4 |
18.9 |
21.8 |
26.0 |
34.1 |
| Searched for work in previous year…………. |
48.9 |
16.3 |
19.6 |
12.9 |
26.1 |
22.8 |
| Not available to work now………………. |
7.3 |
5.8 |
- |
1.5 |
4.6 |
2.7 |
| Available to work now………………….. |
41.6 |
10.5 |
19.6 |
11.4 |
21.5 |
20.1 |
| Reason not currently looking: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Discouragement over job prospects…… |
17.7 |
5.0 |
7.3 |
5.4 |
11.8 |
5.9 |
| Reasons other than discouragement…… |
23.9 |
5.5 |
12.3 |
6.0 |
9.7 |
14.1 |
The above table shows 41,600 civilians “Available to work now” from over 1.36 million “not in the work force” for various reasons in the 1st quarter 2011. This includes 17,700 who report having searched for work in the previous year, but are “discouraged over job prospects” currently. Another 23,900 are not looking for other reasons. According to Professor
Laura Dresser at the Center on Wisconsin Strategy, a labor economics expert at UW-Madison, the discouraged workers number is always low in reporting – primarily because of people’s hesitance to report being discouraged. The total number of “not currently looking” must be considered, as people will drop out of the workforce in a poor employment climate using “other reason” instead of admitting to discouragement – becoming a “stay-at-home” mom, adult student, or other.
The second quarter of 2011 shows an increase of over 6,000:
Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 2nd Quarter, 2011 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)
| Total not in the labor force…………………… |
1,358.1 |
209.6 |
274.9 |
873.6 |
563.5 |
794.6 |
| Do not want a job now……………………….. |
1,248.1 |
172.4 |
235.4 |
840.3 |
511.4 |
736.7 |
| Want a job…………………………………. |
110.0 |
37.2 |
39.6 |
33.3 |
52.1 |
58.0 |
| Did not search for work in previous year……. |
47.1 |
12.6 |
16.4 |
18.2 |
16.5 |
30.7 |
| Searched for work in previous year…………. |
62.9 |
24.6 |
23.2 |
15.1 |
35.6 |
27.3 |
| Not available to work now………………. |
15.0 |
8.8 |
3.9 |
2.2 |
5.1 |
9.9 |
| Available to work now………………….. |
47.9 |
15.8 |
19.2 |
12.9 |
30.5 |
17.4 |
| Reason not currently looking: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Discouragement over job prospects…… |
14.2 |
3.2 |
6.0 |
5.0 |
8.6 |
5.5 |
| Reasons other than discouragement…… |
33.7 |
12.5 |
13.3 |
7.9 |
21.9 |
11.8 |
The total for 2nd Quarter 2011, above, 47,900 civilians available to work , who looked last year, but have given up.
Third Quarter 2011 showed a little improvement, down to 44,700:
Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 3rd Quarter, 2011 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)
| Total not in the labor force…………………… |
1,370.1 |
175.1 |
290.5 |
904.5 |
607.2 |
763.0 |
| Do not want a job now……………………….. |
1,265.4 |
148.0 |
248.2 |
869.2 |
559.4 |
706.0 |
| Want a job…………………………………. |
104.7 |
27.1 |
42.3 |
35.3 |
47.7 |
57.0 |
| Did not search for work in previous year……. |
48.4 |
9.7 |
20.7 |
18.0 |
20.0 |
28.4 |
| Searched for work in previous year…………. |
56.3 |
17.4 |
21.6 |
17.3 |
27.7 |
28.7 |
| Not available to work now………………. |
11.7 |
2.8 |
3.5 |
5.4 |
3.4 |
8.3 |
| Available to work now………………….. |
44.7 |
14.6 |
18.1 |
12.0 |
24.3 |
20.4 |
| Reason not currently looking: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Discouragement over job prospects…… |
14.3 |
6.7 |
4.8 |
2.8 |
8.8 |
5.5 |
| Reasons other than discouragement…… |
30.3 |
7.9 |
13.3 |
9.1 |
15.5 |
14.8 |
Fourth Quarter 2011 shows marked improvement, dropping to 28,500 – the “discouraged workers” dropping to 6,800:
Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 4th Quarter, 2011 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)
| Total not in the labor force…………………… |
1,410.4 |
228.5 |
281.5 |
900.4 |
608.3 |
802.1 |
| Do not want a job now……………………….. |
1,332.9 |
202.5 |
257.5 |
873.0 |
566.7 |
766.2 |
| Want a job…………………………………. |
77.5 |
26.0 |
24.0 |
27.4 |
41.6 |
35.9 |
| Did not search for work in previous year……. |
44.0 |
13.3 |
9.8 |
21.0 |
24.9 |
19.2 |
| Searched for work in previous year…………. |
33.5 |
12.8 |
14.2 |
6.4 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
| Not available to work now………………. |
4.9 |
3.2 |
1.7 |
- |
1.0 |
3.9 |
| Available to work now………………….. |
28.5 |
9.6 |
12.5 |
6.4 |
15.7 |
12.9 |
| Reason not currently looking: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Discouragement over job prospects…… |
6.8 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
1.0 |
5.3 |
1.5 |
| Reasons other than discouragement…… |
21.8 |
6.9 |
9.4 |
5.5 |
10.4 |
11.4 |
The significant drop in the fourth quarter is explained by Professor Dresser as due to temporary holiday hires – with the first quarter 2012 expected to see a steep increase as those holiday jobs come to an end. That pattern held true, as the number jumps to 35,200 – with the “discouraged number nearly doubling to 12,600:
Table 11b. Civilians not in the labor force by sex and age, 1st Quarter, 2012 (based on CPS)
(Numbers in thousands)
| Total not in the labor force…………………… |
1,395.7 |
272.9 |
260.4 |
862.4 |
582.7 |
813.0 |
| Do not want a job now……………………….. |
1,312.3 |
245.1 |
230.6 |
836.6 |
538.2 |
774.1 |
| Want a job…………………………………. |
83.5 |
27.9 |
29.9 |
25.7 |
44.5 |
38.9 |
| Did not search for work in previous year……. |
41.1 |
12.5 |
15.6 |
12.9 |
25.4 |
15.7 |
| Searched for work in previous year…………. |
42.4 |
15.4 |
14.2 |
12.8 |
19.2 |
23.2 |
| Not available to work now………………. |
7.2 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
0.7 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
| Available to work now………………….. |
35.2 |
12.2 |
10.9 |
12.1 |
16.2 |
19.0 |
| Reason not currently looking: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Discouragement over job prospects…… |
12.6 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
5.6 |
5.0 |
7.6 |
| Reasons other than discouragement…… |
22.6 |
8.2 |
8.0 |
6.4 |
11.2 |
11.4 |
At the end of March 2012, there were over 35,000 civilians available for work - who had sought employment in the previous year, but gave up. These people do not collect benefits, nor are they reported as “unemployed” for reasons of calculating the unemployment rate.
How many workers have exhausted or been denied unemployment benefits for the same time period (Q1 2011 – Q1 2012)? The first response came in the form of an email from DWD spokesman John Dipko, and referred to those collecting extended benefits under the Economic Stimulus Act, which terminated in March, after Wisconsin’s unemployment rate fell below the 7% mark:
“Wisconsin had 44,384 final Extended Benefits payments from January 2011 through March 2012. Exceptions include Extended Training and Trade Readjustment Allowance. While this is payment data (v. claimant data), the information provides a good indicator of the number unique claimants who have exhausted all benefits programs.”
Allow me to emphasize that number – 44,384 people were thrown off benefits in March. Again, that number is not reflected in the unemployment rate. The final email response from Dipko was to the question of regular benefits expired, or not qualified to collect benefits for the same period. The brief equation at the end is directly from the email:
“Scott: an additional 14,608 claimants during the time frame specified were identified as either regular claimants who did not qualify for emergeny unemployment compensation, or regular claimants who qualified for benefits in a different state. Except in very few cases, the claimants would have no benefits available in Wisconsin. Again, exceptions include Extended Training and Trade Readjustment Allowance.
44,384 + 14,608 = 58,992″
Again, let me emphasize the total number by the end of March - 58,992 Wisconsinites living outside the system. Collecting zero benefits, and not being reported in the “unemployment rate.” But they are there. Nearly 2% of the total workforce…over 1% of the population. 29% above the current number of reported unemployed. If that number of individuals is added to the 205,300 unemployed, the rate would jump to 8.6%. If we include the 35,200 civilians who have given up looking for work, but had been looking the previous year, the total is 94,192 at the end of March, 2012. This would bring the unemployment rate to 9.8%.
While the presumptive rate above is speculative, there is one fact from this data that is striking. Wisconsin has a chronic and persistent long-term unemployment problem. At the end of March, 2012, as a state, we dropped over 50,000 people off benefits, and another 35,000 reported giving up looking for work. Professor Dresser characterized these numbers as “highly significant.” Dresser points out that to return to 2007 employment levels, Wisconsin needs 200,000 jobs now taking into account population growth. Even if we give Scott Walker the 23,000 jobs he says he created in 2011 – nearly double that number lost their emergency benefits in March.
In light of this long-term and persistent problem, Scott Walker’s supposed gains in the unemployment rate are meaningless. He is playing political games with the numbers to give the illusion of progress – when in reality, he has chosen political gain, ideological civil war, political patronage, and propaganda over addressing the real problem. There are real people who need real jobs, and they have been unemployed for a long time. The Walker Administration and 2011 GOP-led Legislature have done nothing to address this issue. This Administration has squandered the opportunity and trust placed in it by the people of Wisconsin – to work for the good of the majority of people in the state. How can there be any further doubt that a recall is not only justified, but necessary.
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Election Day “Dear John (Doe)” letter…Forward belongs to the people
Dear Scott Walker,
You have initiated many attacks on the people of Wisconsin since you took office. Collective bargaining rights, voting rights, access to health care for the poor, seniors, and children; women’s rights, teachers – the list goes on. In addition, you continue to lie about the state of Wisconsin’s fiscal and employment situation to further your political career – ignoring real and persistent problems that people are struggling with to pursue your ideological crusade. You must have learned from a young age, apparently, that “the ends justifies the means.” So be it. You have chosen your course, and it has led you to defile and defame that most sacred of words for those of us who are lifelong Wisconsinites -
“FORWARD”
Forward is our word, and you have hijacked it for your campaign of basest propaganda. Today is recall election day. Within twenty-four hours, you may well be the ex-Governor of this state. Even if you should win today, you may be indicted on either Federal or State (or both) criminal charges. Both are fitting ends to your term, whose legacy will be written with three words – “divide and conquer.” The same tactic used by another famous Wisconsin politician, Joseph McCarthy.
Like McCarthy, the power and money that elevated you, has blinded you to the history and legacy you now defile. You have used the word “Forward” countless times during this campaign – and it is sacrilege. Today, regardless of the outcome of this election, we reclaim “Forward.” We have history and truth on our side.
Governor Nelson Dewey, as accounted here, insisted upon the adoption of “Forward as the state motto:
(from “Some Personal Recollection of Governor Dewey”, Victor Kutchin)
“Excelsior” was rejected for having meaning and inference as too privileged and regal. The author, Kutchin, a close friend of Dewey’s, gives further context to the meaning of “Forward” to our state’s founders:
“The ringing groove of change.” Mr. Walker, the very meaning of “Forward” as our motto means progress. Not progress of money and corporations over the people, but the progress of liberty and opportunity for all people (and the founders never considered corporations people) – beyond the bounds of Wisconsin.
It must be known to many readers of this blog, but likely not to you…the history of the majority of our state’s founders. Most of them fled countries in Europe for greater political and economic freedom. Wisconsin had two Constitutional Conventions. The 1846 Wisconsin Constitution was narrowly rejected. The 1846 Constitution would have given women the right to own property, African-Americans and immigrants the right to vote, and would have prohibited privately owned banks. The intent of our state’s founders was a truly progressive state – showing the way “Forward” for the rest of the nation, by expanding rights and liberties beyond existing boundaries.
The 1846 Constitution was rejected; it was done so due to the fact that only white, landowning males could vote, under territorial law. The giant banking interests also owned the major newspapers of the day and launched a statewide campaign against the 1846 constitution – preserving their existence in the new state. Despite this, even the adopted constitution goes further than most other state constitutions to preserve citizens’ rights and liberties. It is easier to grant greater liberty to citizens under the state Constitution than to restrict rights – thus your constitutional issues with the new Voter ID law.
Grant greater liberty, expand the right of access to civil and economic justice, for the greatest number of people - that is “Forward.” Your draconian use of the word goes against the very foundation of this state. The founders of Wisconsin and Robert M. LaFollette have been turning in their graves for the past 18 months. Today, they will again rest, as we begin restoring the true vision of “Forward, Wisconsin.”
Regardless of the outcome today, you have chosen your legacy, in your own words – “divide and conquer.” WE have chosen ours, as it was written early in our state history – “FORWARD.”
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Posted by Badger Democracy on June 5, 2012
http://bdgrdemocracy.wordpress.com/2012/06/05/election-day-dear-john-doe-letter-forward-belongs-to-the-people/