Paul Ryan retains his Congressional seat…but is Tuesday’s biggest loser

Paul Ryan will still have a job, having defeated challenger Rob Zerban in his most competitive race since he first won election. What is getting very little attention in the mainstream media is that Ryan failed to carry his home communities of Janesville and Rock County. Zerban won his home County of Kenosha and Ryan’s home County, Rock. Not surprisingly, Ryan has the GOP-friendly redistricting and Waukesha County to thank.

Total vote:

Ryan –      199,715 –  55%

Zerban – 157,721 –  43%

Difference – 41,994

(Source – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

First, Ryan loses his home of Janesville and Rock County:

Rock County

Paul Ryan (Rep) 46.39% 18,826
Rob Zerban (Dem) 51.50% 20,902

Zerban + 2076

(Source: Rock County Clerk)

Zerban wins his home Kenosha County:

Kenosha County

Rob Zerban (DEM) 41101 52.27
Paul Ryan (REP) 36092 45.9

Zerban +5009

(Source: Kenosha County Clerk)

Zerban is competitive in Racine county:

Racine County

PAUL RYAN   –   50,106 –  48.21 %
ROB ZERBAN  -  47,618  - 45.81 %

Ryan +2488

(Source: Racine County Clerk)

Racine and Rock basically cancel each other out, leaving Zerban with a 5,000 vote lead. Walworth County gives Ryan a slight lead:

Walworth County

PAUL RYAN REP 27,890
ROB ZERBAN DEM 16,546

Ryan + 11,344

(Source: Walworth County Clerk)

After Rock, Kenosha, Racine, and Walworth County, Ryan is only ahead 6,747 votes out of 259,081 cast in those four counties, or 2.6%. Enter the GOP behemoth Waukesha County.

Paul Ryan    -   36,843

Rob Zerban –  12,688

Ryan + 24,155

(Source: Waukesha County Clerk)

After Waukesha County, Ryan’s lead is increased to 30,902 out of 308,612 votes cast, or 10% – a huge increase, and insurmountable.  Waukesha County accounts for nearly 50% of the margin of victory. Southern Milwaukee County adds almost the same pro-Ryan vote as Walworth County.

More Waukesha County for Ryan, larger margin of victory for the GOP, and a relatively “safe” seat.

2001 WI 1st CD map

2011 WI 1st CD map

Ryan wins thanks to favorable redistricting, even after losing his hometown. In the final analysis, Paul Ryan may have retained his House seat, but after the fight of his political career. This on the night he failed to deliver a critical Wisconsin for Mitt Romney, and Tammy Baldwin defeated a state political legend in Tommy Thompson.

The 43% of voters in the 1st Congressional District will undoubtedly have a close eye on Paul Ryan – as will Rob Zerban.

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4 thoughts on “Paul Ryan retains his Congressional seat…but is Tuesday’s biggest loser

  1. A win is a win, isn’t this exactly why the WI GOP pulled the behind closed doors redistricting in the 1st place? Unless those strong holds are breached this will remain the same barring another district change.

  2. If he does not start to follow the wishes of the constituents then next time maybe they will turn him out to pasture. This is government of the people, for the people and by the people. That does not include corporations as they have no heartbeat. And this does not mean for the rich. Get with the program or get out.

  3. I beg to differ with Larry. As long as the Racine Journal Times and Janesville Gazette remain loyal mouthpieces for Mr. Ryan, he can continue to rely on Waukesha County and outside money to keep him in office as long as he wants. (Unless 2020 turns out to be a disastrous year for Madison Republicans, of course.)

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